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MD
Monday Dayton
@mondaydayton · May 16

Alibaba's upcoming results, let's talk about it.

I probably don't need to introduce anything here and we have another contest on Bulios, what's your pick for the end of the week trading prize. But it's certainly no secret so let's write the prize here as well and why do you think so?

A little bit of information to summarize what jumped out at me. Investor " The Big Short" Michael Burry increased his fund's exposure to Chinese e-commerce stocks during the first quarter of 2023. Up to double in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.

Further, ALIBABA Group Holding's e-commerce division will make a "huge" investment in its Taobao shopping app as the newly created subsidiary seeks to fend off competition from social media platforms. The subsidiary wants to focus on content creation as a channel to bring in more users, and will also launch artificial intelligence (AI)-powered merchant tools, said Trudy Dai, chief executive officer (CEO) of Taobao Tmall Commerce Group.

Analysts have estimated revenue growth of under 3 percent as the industry grapples with China's uneven recovery from the pandemic and the lingering impact of Beijing's crackdown on Big Tech. Last week, JD.com's closest rival posted a 1.4 percent sales increase for the quarter, its slowest growth rate on record.

So what do you think? ... the last few days we've seen growth, will it last that long? I personally have a few shares to buy at $89. I've put a lot of faith in it. I'm hopeful of course and my guess is it could get to $100, but probably not this week. Right now I think we're going to be at around $90. But hopefully it will climb higher and then I'll sell and get out of China. As Buffett and Munger said recently, it's too bad the U.S. and China can't work together and I'm also worried about this Beijing intervention. I just find the environment there so uncertain still.

RR
Rickie Reeve @rickiereeve May 17

$BABA could be quick money... Or maybe not. 😁

BC
Bill Combs @billcombs May 16

I don't own the stock, but I certainly follow the action and am interested in the results. Thanks for the status/article.

MD
Monday Dayton @mondaydayton May 16

Thank you too 👍 and how do you feel it's going so far. China is opening up again and I read that if nothing happens, it should grow, but on the other hand, they say the results are not very good yet...

RB
Randolf Babcock @randolfbab May 16

I find it pretty shaky, I held back for a while about a year, but got out as fast as I could with a gain of about 25-30%.

MD
Monday Dayton @mondaydayton May 16

Yep no wonder, that's what I plan to do now too, quit as soon as I have it in the green. I mean, it's not a bad company, but you just never know in this country...

DD
Daniela Duong @danieladuong May 16

I don't have it in my portfolio and don't plan to include it yet, it seems like a very turbulent company the last 2 years and somehow I don't know what to expect from it.

YE
Yorick Ericson @yorickericson May 16

What is the current talk about big tech in Cina?:)

MD
Monday Dayton @mondaydayton May 16

I'll throw you two links, since I don't know how to summarize it well in a reply here if you want to read more. Like, it's not so bad now, but I read a report from January that there's bites of money flowing into China outside of the awareness of the authority, just behind the backs of Beijing, who found out, and since late 2020, Beijing's regulatory crackdown on the tech sector has been underway, wiping out over $1 trillion from the country's largest companies. According to the other report, it's better now, they literally describe that they're no longer going against the wind but with the wind at their back, but still, just who knows what to expect there.

https://www.newstream.cz/money/do-ciny-pres-danove-raje-tecou-obri-sumy-penez-ze-zapadu-peking-o-tom-nema-tuseni and the second report https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/30/china-tech-beijing-appears-to-relax-scrutiny-of-giants-like-alibaba.html

K
Kris @kris1 May 16

Some months ago Michael Burry also invested $2m in First Republic bank. I do not know if he got out of that trade but like everyone, he could be wrong sometimes.

FP
Fair Price Index @fairpriceindex May 16

Well I think he is wrong very often 😅

JB
Jason Bellier @neostonks May 16

My guess (really just a guess) is $88.5. As I said on soc. networks, industrial production and retail sales in China are lagging forecasts according to new data, so already the $BABA is falling a bit. In terms of results, I saw that EPS is expected to be better than estimates, but sales may lag a few percent.

MD
Monday Dayton @mondaydayton May 16

Thanks for the tip, I see it the same way too, around 90, but as you say, it's already dropping again. Well, unfortunately I'm invested a bit there so I'm hoping it will pick up, at least over that 90$🙏